| 摘要: |
| 快速城市化加剧了社会发展与生态保护之间的矛盾，如何利用集约的资源要素实现社会-生态效益优化，是城市可持续发展的关键。以上海市中心
城区为研究对象，基于多目标规划(multiple objective planning，MOP)模型设置效益目标函数和约束条件嵌入斑块生成土地利用变化模拟模型(patchgenerating
land use simulation model，PLUS)，实现多元目标下城市绿地生态网络多情景模拟及功能评价，以期为未来城市绿地生态网络高效构建、土地
利用规划决策提供参考。结果表明：1)耦合MOP模型和PLUS模型，基于土地资源多效益目标的定量化求解，可以寻求社会-生态效益最优化的关键拐点；2)不
同效益目标导向下，可持续发展情景较经济发展情景和生态保护情景，耕地、林地、水域等各用地类型的相互转化，以及经济发展和生态保护之间的关系均处于
相对稳定状态；3)可持续发展情景的各项绿地生态网络测度指标均介于其他2个用地情景之间，重要斑块的数量及空间分布表征，在优化社会-生态效益、城市土
地利用结构配置的同时，城市绿地生态网络功能也得到提升。研究成果为超大城市高密区绿地生态网络结构功能完善、土地利用规划科学决策、城市社会-生态系
统综合效益提升提供科学参考 |
| 关键词: 风景园林 土地利用模拟 MOP模型 城市绿地生态网络 效益权衡 上海市中心城区 |
| DOI：10.19775/j.cla.2025.05.0100 |
| 投稿时间：2024-07-08修订日期：2025-03-25 |
| 基金项目:国家重点研发计划(2022YFC3802604)；国家自然科学基金项目(32171569)；上海市科委社会发展科技攻关项目(23DZ1204400)；上海市绿化和
市容管理局科研专项(G250202) |
|
| Multi-scenario Simulation of Green Space Ecological Network in Downtown Shanghai under SocialecologicalBenefit Trade-offs |
| LIU Jie,,ZHANG Lang*,,YU Haoran |
| Abstract: |
| For a long time, the human-land conflict has often involved the
exploration of the game relationship between ecological space protection
and social development. Rapid urbanization has led to social and economic
development as well as land use changes, ecological degradation, structural
imbalance of ecosystems, and inefficient service functions. The contradiction
between the limited land resources and the increasing demand for socioeconomic
development in the high-density areas of mega-cities is increasing,
and how to coordinate the optimization and trade-offs of social-ecological multiobjectives
is the key to solving the above problems. In this study, based on the
Multiple Objective Planning (MOP) model, the benefit objective function and
constraints were embedded in the Patch-generating Land Use Simulation (PLUS)
mode to find out the impacts of socio-ecological optimization and trade-offs on
the development of high-density urban areas in Shanghai. In addition, the key
inflection points affecting the social-ecological benefit trade-off objectives were
searched, and the optimization of urban land use structure and urban green
space ecological network function under multiple objectives was explored. In
addition, based on the key indicators of urban green space ecological network
function measurement, the evaluation and analysis of green space ecological
network function under the social-ecological benefit trade-off were carried out.
The results showed that: 1) Coupling the MOP model and PLUS model, based
on the quantitative solution of the multiple benefit objectives of land resources,
and on the basis of the ecological-economic transformation efficiency scheme
group and the key inflection point of benefit optimization, it was possible to
realize the simulation of multiple scenarios of land use changes in the downtown
area of Shanghai; 2) Under the guidance of different benefit objectives, the
sustainable development scenario is relatively stable compared with the
economic development scenario and the ecological protection scenario in terms
of the mutual transformation of cultivated land, forested land, watersheds and
other land use types, as well as the relationship between economic development
and ecological protection; 3) The green space ecological network indicators of
the sustainable development scenario were between the other two land use
scenarios, and the number of important patches and their spatial distribution
were reasonable. The ecological benefits were optimized and the urban land
use structure was restructured, while the function of the urban green space
ecological network was also improved. In this study, the evolution of the urban
green space ecological network is coupled with urban land use changes, and
through multi-scenario simulation and evaluation of land use under multiple
objectives, it is verified that the function of the urban green space ecological
network is improved while optimizing the social-ecological benefits and
reconfiguring the urban land use structure. In the future, a mathematical model
of the relationship between social-ecological benefits and structural functions of
the urban green space ecological network can be constructed to further explore
the clearer mutual feedback mechanism between the comprehensive benefits
of land use and structural functions. The study will provide scientific references
for the improvement of the structure and function of the green space ecological
network, scientific decision-making on land use planning, and the enhancement
of the comprehensive social-ecological system benefits in high-density areas of
megacities. |
| Key words: landscape architecture land use simulation multiple objective
planning model urban green space ecological network benefit trade-off downtown of Shanghai |
